| 679 | 21 | 286 |
| 下载次数 | 被引频次 | 阅读次数 |
转变旅游经济增长方式,加大技术进步贡献率是西部民族地区旅游经济持续发展的重大问题。文章用OSL估计方法建立了样本区域旅游就业线性模型和索洛余值增长模型,研究发现:已有研究中基于经济规模不变的全要素生产率测算的前提假设与现实严重不符。现阶段西部民族地区旅游经济增长的资本要素与劳动要素弹性和为2.03,呈规模报酬递增,且资本、劳动和技术进步贡献差异明显,资本投入要素贡献度高达182%,劳动投入32%,平均广义技术进步贡献率极低仅为-11%,是典型的投资驱动型增长模式。最后为持续发展西部旅游经济,提出加强技术引进、制度创新及继续大量资本投入的旅游经济增长方式转型的建议。
Abstract：Changing the mode of tourism economic growth and increasing the contribution of technological progress are the major issues in the sustainable economic development of western ethnic regions' tourism.By using OSL estimation method,this paper set up tourism employment linear model and Solow's residual value growth model.And it found out that the assumptions of total factor productivity calculation which was based on stable economic scale deviated from reality seriously.The capital and labor elements elastic coefficient was 2.03,which indicated the returns to scale increased.And the contribution of the capital,labor and technological progress had significant differences.The contribution of capital input was 182%,while the labor input contribution was only 32%.The average generalized technological progress contribution rate was extremely low,which was only -11%.It showed that it is a typical model of investment driving growth.Finally,it proposed some suggestions to develop western tourism economy,which were enhancing technology transfer,institutional innovation and insisting the tourism economic growth of large capital investment.
[1]布兰查德,费希尔.宏观经济学:高级教程(中译本)[M].北京:经济科学出版社,1998:245.
[2]Such M J S,Zamora M D M.Spanish productivity:A regionala pproach[J].Annals of Tourism Research,2006,33(3):666-683.
[3]Blake A,Sinclair M T.Tourism productivity:Evidence fromt he United Kingdom[J].Annals of Tourism Research,2006,33(4):1099-1120.
[4]陶卓民,薛献伟,管晶晶.基于数据包络分析的中国旅游业发展效率特征[J].地理学报,2010,(8):1004-1012.
[5]左冰,保继刚.1992-2005年中国旅游业全要素生产率及省际差异[J].地理学报,2008,(4):417-427
[6]周云波,武鹏,刘玉海.中国旅游业效率评价与投入改进分析[J].山西财经大学学报,2010,(5):27-32.
[7]Solow R M.Technical Change and the Aggregate ProductionF unction[J].Review of Economics and Statistics,1957,39.
[8]张家界市统计局.2009张家界统计年鉴[G].北京:中国统计出版社,2010.
[9]肖红叶,郝枫.资本永续盘存法及其国内应用关[J].财贸经济,2005,(3):55-62.
[10]胡永泰.中国全要素生产率:来自农业部门劳动力再配置的首要作用[J].经济研究,1998,(3):31-39.
[11]王小鲁,樊纲,等.中国经济增长的可持续性——跨世纪的回顾与展望[M].北京:经济科学出版社,2000:54.
[12]Wang Y,Yao Y.Sources of ChinasEconomic Growth1952-1999:Incorporating Human Capital Accumulation[J].China Economic Review,2001,14:32-52.
[13]Young A.Gold into Base Metals:Productivity Growth in theP eoplesRepublic of China during the Reform Period[J].J ournal of Political Economy,2003,111(6):1220-1242.
[14]Johansen S,Juselius K.Maximum Likelihood Estimation andI nference on Cointegration—With Applications to the Dem and for Money[J].Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Stat istics,1990,52.
[15]龚六堂,谢丹阳.我国省份之间的要素流动和边际生产率的差异分析[J].经济研究,2004,(1):45-53.
[16]宋海岩,刘淄楠,蒋萍.改革时期中国总投资决定因素的分析[J].世界经济文汇,2003,(1):44-54.
[17]黄勇峰,任若恩,刘晓生.中国制造业资本存量永续盘存法估计[J].经济学,2002,(2):377-395.
[18]张军,吴桂英,张吉鹏.中国省际物质资本存量估算:1952—2000[J].经济研究,2004,(10):35-34.
[19]唐代剑,李莉.旅游就业弹性测量的实证研究——以浙江省首例[J].旅游科学,2005,(4):11-13.
[20]尚立晰.向延振.张家界市情大辞典[M].北京:民族出版社,2001:1003.
[21]郑玉歆.全要素生产率的测度及经济增长方式的“阶段性”规律——由东亚经济增长方式的争论谈[J].1999,(5):55-56.
基本信息:
中图分类号:F224;F592.7
引用信息:
[1]粟娟.规模递增、技术进步与西部民族地区旅游经济增长[J].华东经济管理,2011,25(09):45-49.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金项目(07BJY138);; 教育部社科规划课题(10YJA790193);; 湖南省自然与文化遗产研究基地委托项目“世界遗产价值与价值创造分析”;; 湖南省生态旅游应用技术重点实验室项目