华东经济管理

充分利用外国直接投资是复杂国际环境下防范产业链外部风险的重要抓手。文章基于OECD-ICIO全球投入产出数据库，从事前风险识别视角评估外国直接投资对东道国产业链国际生产长度比重的影响及内在机制。研究发现，外国直接投资显著降低了东道国产业链国际生产长度比重，该效应在多次跨境的非闭环深度产业链中尤为显著，且在中高收入及投资环境更优的经济体中更为突出。机制分析表明，外国直接投资主要通过知识溢出效应降低东道国对国际生产的依赖，东道国数字化水平的提升在此过程中发挥正向调节作用。基于中国数据的扩展分析进一步验证了上述结论。据此，文章为中国在复杂外部环境下推动高水平对外开放、提升全球产业链韧性提供了有益借鉴。

Leveraging FDI serves as a critical approach to mitigating external risks in global industrial chains amid complex international environments. Based on the OECD-ICIO global input-output database, this study evaluates the impact of FDI on the proportion of international production length in host countries' industrial chains from an ex-ante risk identification perspective, and explores the underlying mechanisms. The findings indicate that FDI significantly reduces the share of international production length in host countries' industrial chains. This effect is particularly pronounced in deeply integrated, non-closed-loop industrial chains involving multiple cross-border transactions, and is more prominent in upper-middle-income economies and with more favorable investment environments. Mechanism analysis reveals that FDI primarily reduces host countries' reliance on international production through knowledge spillovers, with the host country's digitalization level playing a positive moderating role in this process. An extended analysis based on Chinese data further corroborates these conclusions. Accordingly, this study provides valuable insights for China in advancing highlevel opening-up and enhancing the resilience of global industrial chains under complex external conditions.