华东经济管理

上海自贸区成立以来,在风险可控前提下,其在推进人民币利率市场化、资本项目可兑换、扩大人民币跨境使用等金融改革核心领域先行先试,推出多项金融开放和金融创新举措。上海自贸区金融开放创新的政策效果如何,对上海经济产生什么效应,是值得研究的课题。文章运用"反事实"方法,将金融开放创新作为内生变量,通过"上海自贸区金融开放创新→上海市金融业增加值变化→上海市GDP等经济指标变化"的路径,就上海自贸区金融开放创新对上海的经济效应进行评价。结果显示:上海自贸区金融开放创新拉升上海金融业增加值季度增长率4.32个百分点,对上海GDP增长率的贡献达到8.39%,已经与社会固定资产投资相当。

Since founded,China(Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone(Shanghai FTZ) has piloted RMB capital account convertibility,interest rate liberalization and the cross-border use of RMB on the premise of controlling risks,and issued many policies to improve financial openness and financial innovation in China. It is worth studying the policy effect of financial openness and financial innovation in Shanghai FTZ,especially the effect on Shanghai's economy. This paper applies the "counterfactual"method and regards financial openness and financial innovation in Shanghai FTZ as endogenous variables. The paper builds the path of "financial openness and financial innovation in Shanghai FTZ—financial industry added value changes in Shanghai—GDP and other economic indicators changes in Shanghai"to evaluate the effect of financial openness and financial innovation in Shanghai FTZ on Shanghai's economy. The results show that financial openness and financial innovation in Shanghai FTZ has increased 4. 32% of Shanghai financial industry added value quarterly growth rate,and its contribution to Shanghai's GDP growth rate is 8. 39%,which is almost the same as the contribution of social fixed assets investment.