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当前中国农业生产面临新常态的挑战,迫切需要进行农业供给侧结构性改革破解发展困境。文章从代表性油料作物花生入手,利用中国花生主产区446户与非主产区394户的微观调研数据,分别建立了二元响应模型中的probit和logit模型,对花生农户的种植意愿及其影响因素进行实证分析。依据花生生产的一系列特征,文章对影响中国农业生产的主要供给要素进行中长期的战略思考,研究其深层次的作用机制,在此基础上提出生产要素的优化配置路径,弥补了现有研究的不足。最后认为要稳定花生供给,提高农户生产积极性,需要从生产、组织和市场三方面同时着手解决。
Abstract：China's agricultural production is facing the challenge of a New Normal at present, and there is an urgent need for the structuralreform of agricultural supply-side to crack the development dilemma. Based on the data collected from 446 farmers in major peanut pro-ducing areas and 394 farmers in non-major producing areas, this paper starts with the typical oil crops: peanut, builds the probit modeland the logit model in the binary response model respectively, and conducts an empirical analysis of peanut farmers' willingness to growand its influencing factors. In accordance with a series of characteristics of peanut production, the paper makes a medium and long-termstrategic thinking on the main supply factors affecting China's agricultural production, and studies its deep mechanism. Accordingly, thepaper proposes the optimal allocation path of production factors, which makes up the deficiency of the existing research. Finally, the papersuggests that the three aspects of production, organization and market should be addressed simultaneously in order to stabilize peanut sup-ply and increase farmers' enthusiasm for production.
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(1)不考虑价格因素的原因是由于价格对所有农户具有一致性,在受到同样的价格变化影响下来考察农户种植决策行为的差异才是本研究的重点内容。
基本信息:
DOI：
中图分类号:F326.12
引用信息:
[1]吴怀军,周曙东,刘吉双等.基于Probit和Logit模型的中国农业生产影响因素研究——以油料作物花生为例[J].华东经济管理,2017,31(08):85-91.
基金信息:
国家社会科学基金重大项目(13&ZD160);国家社会科学基金一般项目(15BJY096);; 国家现代农业(花生)产业技术体系(CARS-14-10B)